Friday, December 16, 2005

I'm sad to miss this show...

Wednesday the 21st, the shortest day of the year, will be seeing some big surf hit the coast. As we mentioned in yesterday’s report, this is from a significant WNW system traveling at low latitudes towards our region. Today, models have kicked this system up a notch; actually make that about three or four notches. This powerful system is now posted in NWS warnings, which considering their conservative nature on swell prediction is impressive. The NWS is warning of high surf and coastal flooding potential. The WAM model runs today are showing this system now building into an astonishing large system with 18+ second periods, and surf that could reach 20+ feet on the faces at direct west facing breaks. Now, bear in mind that we’re still dealing with some 48h+ models, and we’ll need to confirm this in the next couple of days. Nevertheless, significant swell is imminent; we just need to see if this system builds to a 10-15 foot swell-maker, or, as some models suggest today, a 20-25 foot surf pounder. To err on the side of conservative predictions, our call could be for 12-14 foot face heights at west facing breaks. To err on the side of caution, we’d call for bigger, more hazardous surf. We’ll have more details by Sunday morning, and keep you posted as models converge on this system over the next 36 hours.

I look forward to reading your blogs to see if this swell actually came in.

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